Industry:
NGO’s
Service company
War Child
Size of customer base
100.000+ Recurring donors
Key products/services offered
Predictive churn analysis, donor segmentation, health scores, and engagement strategy optimization
Introduction
As a non-profit relying heavily on donor support, War Child knew it was critical to maintain strong donor relationships and reduce churn. Before partnering with Churned, War Child primarily relied on manual, spreadsheet-based analyses for donor insights. This approach was limited in scope and accuracy, leaving them uncertain about which donor segments were most likely to leave and why. With limited communication channels (primarily email and telemarketing) and concerns that certain donor requests (e.g., asking for higher monthly contributions) could trigger cancellations, War Child needed a predictive, data-driven solution to better understand and serve its diverse donor base.
Challenges faced: Inability to accurately predict churn or understand segment-level donor behaviors, difficulty personalizing outreach without risking alienation, and limited data-driven guidance on which engagement strategies worked best.
Impact on business: The organization risked losing long-term support for children affected by war, as every departing donor reduced the stability and impact of War Child’s funding.
Missing capabilities: A predictive analytics platform to identify at-risk donors, understand churn drivers, test engagement strategies, and guide personalized donor experiences.
Problem statement
War Child chose Churned for its ability to apply advanced machine learning to donor data, producing reliable churn predictions and actionable segment insights. The scientifically grounded, data-driven approach instilled confidence in War Child’s team, allowing them to move from guesswork to informed decision-making.
Reason for choosing Churned: Churned offered predictive modeling, robust segmentation, and integration capabilities, enabling War Child to understand donor behavior at a granular level.
Key features: High-accuracy churn predictions, health scores, donor segmentation, identification of churn drivers, and the ability to test and optimize email and engagement strategies.
Alignment with goals: By leveraging Churned’s predictive insights, War Child aimed to minimize donor attrition, refine communication, and ultimately support children for longer by maintaining a steady donor base.
Our strategy
Over the past 3 years, Churned helped War Child unify its donor data into a single platform—eliminating the need for manual spreadsheets—and providing a comprehensive dashboard featuring key indicators like churn risk, health scores, and critical churn factors. With Churned’s predictive analytics, War Child could identify sensitive donor segments less tolerant of frequent requests and tailor outreach more thoughtfully. For instance, tests on email cadence in the welcome journey revealed that “faster” communications weren’t effective, prompting strategy adjustments that improved donor retention.
Usage in business: Marketing automation specialists and analysts at War Child used Churned’s insights to refine email campaigns, identify which segments to approach gently (or not at all), and understand the long-term effects of different engagement strategies.
Daily operations fit: Churned functioned like an external data analyst, continuously providing War Child with real-time, data-backed guidance. This allowed the team to move beyond intuition and invest resources in strategies proven to reduce churn.
Results and Success Metrics
War Child experienced measurable improvements in its donor engagement approach with Churned’s predictive insights:
Measurable results: Using Churned, War Child significantly decreased donor churn across key segments and improved campaign effectiveness by more than 25% compared to control groups.
Enhanced decision-making: The welcome journey tests guided by Churned’s predictions led War Child to adjust email cadences, resulting in better donor retention and fewer early cancellations.
In-depth segment understanding: Armed with reliable, scientifically driven analytics, War Child could test and tailor outreach methods, potentially saving thousands of donors from churning each year and improving the quality and longevity of donor relationships.
The Future with Churned
Looking ahead, War Child plans to deepen its use of Churned’s predictive models and segmentation tools to further refine donor communication strategies. The organization intends to run more tests to determine which donor groups should not be approached with certain requests and to explore additional channels or methods that preserve donor goodwill. By continuously optimizing their outreach based on Churned’s insights, War Child anticipates stronger donor relationships and more stable, long-term funding for its mission.
Growth integration: As War Child’s donor base evolves, Churned’s platform will support ongoing adaptations, ensuring retention strategies remain effective and sensitive to donor preferences.
Key Takeaways
Advice to others: Non-profits should consider focusing on “closing the back door” and investing in retention as much as acquisition. Predictive analytics can turn guesswork into actionable insights, ultimately increasing donor lifetime value.
Overall experience: War Child values Churned as a trusted, data-driven partner that provides reliability, predictive power, and guidance. This enables the organization to focus on its mission—helping children in conflict areas—while maintaining a stable stream of donor support.
Results
25% improvement in campaign effectiveness
Significant reduction in donor churn
Optimized donor engagement through predictive analytics
Written by
Michiel Doornenbal
Founder & CEO
